Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 93954.492324 99073.043278 104189.090310 109682.887854 115411.864307 121206.428574 127506.823575
2025-11-02 85435.768693 93245.789406 101267.798847 110112.987129 119581.587090 129402.940227 140349.657779
2025-11-09 79097.139759 88711.238450 98800.420550 110156.337653 122560.431726 135676.298820 150571.423661
2025-11-16 74999.406293 86043.229987 97840.517439 111345.469377 126341.459888 142446.153646 161012.456630
2025-11-23 70869.770996 82961.606260 96083.400184 111329.833387 128504.577579 147199.523871 169033.283617
2025-11-30 68335.316286 81433.675125 95846.280327 112812.199565 132164.375543 153476.722239 178646.674071
2025-12-07 65845.243832 79773.919635 95297.876642 113792.193387 135130.195747 158880.161684 187213.684244
2025-12-14 63059.685953 77612.245112 94030.327664 113812.560302 136883.179934 162817.944336 194050.596177
2025-12-21 60719.101996 75845.132003 93105.933443 114124.094203 138881.635636 166969.126490 201088.358110
2025-12-28 59341.480296 75134.853411 93345.813375 115734.574074 142345.514451 172786.238289 210052.653035
2026-01-04 57848.295867 74207.968413 93261.995219 116903.557652 145246.662290 177924.791731 218226.310680
2026-01-11 56233.328293 73059.839835 92849.281195 117622.533759 147569.826105 182359.056544 225567.822818
2026-01-18 54412.657788 71610.409154 92036.192079 117835.586688 149283.608883 186092.442979 232131.532590
2026-01-25 52839.148862 70409.789349 91477.000294 118315.811123 151291.849648 190167.248180 239116.380667
2026-02-01 51150.227609 69002.665250 90608.651801 118366.869869 152739.001130 193545.150365 245259.779548
2026-02-08 50156.994205 68433.737551 90743.993294 119629.171501 155651.720958 198690.702648 253557.078280
2026-02-15 48614.505635 67109.857567 89887.624991 119612.815621 156953.374714 201858.207075 259447.128244
2026-02-22 47898.341399 66821.276784 90311.570233 121184.916020 160220.119665 207435.314846 268309.946594
2026-03-01 46981.342527 66237.358229 90331.853209 122224.092318 162808.289036 212179.424618 276169.187708
2026-03-08 45658.815216 65079.201198 89579.496294 122245.690154 164090.465042 215294.591218 282016.983852
2026-03-15 44535.355339 64149.354653 89089.939785 122576.014658 165742.993566 218861.338540 288432.135098
2026-03-22 44054.036736 64057.934717 89674.668670 124283.480336 169149.504359 224633.491723 297631.929689
2026-03-29 43401.036859 63712.453888 89908.762104 125522.705938 171952.697725 229656.510233 305918.587694